Computer Tool For Estimating Project Cost Contigency Based On Risk Analysis And Fuzzy Expert System

Determination of the appropriate project cost contigency is very important to the success of oproject management. Several methods in estimating project cost contigency have been presented. However, most of the methoids rely on statistical analysis which requires large amount of statistical data that sometimes is not easy to be obtained in the construction industry. This paper presents a methodology and computer tool to estimate cost contigency using a flexible and rational approach based on risk analysis and fuzzy expert system. This model accommodates the use of contractor’s experience and judgment in the analysis process. The optimum model can be used for estimating project cost contigency.