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A comparative study of univariate forecasting methods for predicting tuberculosis incidence on human

Permanasari, Adhistya Erna and Awang Rambli, Dayang Rohaya and Dominic P, Dhanapal Durai (2009) A comparative study of univariate forecasting methods for predicting tuberculosis incidence on human. In: Research and Development (SCOReD), 2009 IEEE Student Conference on, 16-18 Novmber 2009, UPM Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia.

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Abstract

The negative impact of zoonosis has stimulated study into a prediction system that able to estimate the future number of zoonosis, especially in human being. Zoonosis refers to any infectious disease that is able to be transmitted from animals to humans. This empirical paper compares three univariate methods for zoonosis forecasting up to one year. Regression analysis, decomposition, and Holt-Winter's were selected as the simple and quick techniques for this purpose. The methods were compared using a time series of monthly number for tuberculosis incidence in human. Different error measures were used to determine the best model among them. It was found that the Holt-Winter's method produced better prediction than the rest of the methods with MAPE was 6.301 and Theil U value was 0.037.

Item Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Subjects:R Medicine > RZ Other systems of medicine
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science
H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA76 Computer software
Departments / MOR / COE:Departments > Computer Information Sciences
ID Code:3682
Deposited By: Dr Dayang Rohaya Awang Rambli
Deposited On:23 Dec 2010 08:58
Last Modified:23 Dec 2010 08:58

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