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Stochastic refinery planning with risk management

C.S., Khor and A., Elkamel and P.L., Douglas (2008) Stochastic refinery planning with risk management. Petroleum Science and Technology, 26 (14). pp. 1726-1740. ISSN 10916466

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Abstract

This work proposes a two-stage stochastic programming model with fixed recourse via scenario analysis with incorporation of risk management for an optimal midterm refinery planning that addresses three factors of uncertainties: prices of crude oil and saleable products (in the objective function), product demands (in the RHS coefficients), and product yields (in the LHS coefficients). Compensating slack variables and discrepancy costs are employed to explicitly account for constraints' violations to increase model tractability. Variance is adopted as the risk measure, with its shortcomings highlighted and mean-absolute deviation proposed as an improved alternative. A representative numerical example is illustrated.

Item Type:Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:Finance; Insurance; Management; Mathematical programming; Occupational risks; Planning; Refining; Rhodium compounds; Risk assessment; Risk management; Stochastic models; Stochastic programming; Uncertainty analysis; Absolute deviations; Crude oils; Mean-variance; Numerical examples; Objective function; Optimization under uncertainty; Product demands; Product yields; Refinery planning; Risk; Risk measure; Saleable products; Scenario analysis; Slack variables; Two-stage stochastic programming; Risk analysis
Subjects:T Technology > TP Chemical technology
Departments / MOR / COE:Departments > Chemical Engineering
ID Code:238
Deposited By: Khor Cheng Seong
Deposited On:27 Feb 2010 13:51
Last Modified:19 Jan 2017 08:26

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