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Variation of Time Domain Failure Probabilities of Jack-up with Wave Return Periods

Idris, A. and Harahap, I.S.H. and Ahmed Ali, M.O. (2018) Variation of Time Domain Failure Probabilities of Jack-up with Wave Return Periods. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 140 (1).

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Abstract

This study evaluated failure probabilities of jack up units on the framework of time dependent reliability analysis using uncertainty from different sea states representing different return period of the design wave. Surface elevation for each sea state was represented by Karhunen-Loeve expansion method using the eigenfunctions of prolate spheroidal wave functions in order to obtain the wave load. The stochastic wave load was propagated on a simplified jack up model developed in commercial software to obtain the structural response due to the wave loading. Analysis of the stochastic response to determine the failure probability in excessive deck displacement in the framework of time dependent reliability analysis was performed by developing Matlab codes in a personal computer. Results from the study indicated that the failure probability increases with increase in the severity of the sea state representing a longer return period. Although the results obtained are in agreement with the results of a study of similar jack up model using time independent method at higher values of maximum allowable deck displacement, it is in contrast at lower values of the criteria where the study reported that failure probability decreases with increase in the severity of the sea state. © 2018 Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.

Item Type:Article
Impact Factor:cited By 0; Conference of 4th International Conference on Civil and Environmental Engineering for Sustainability, IConCEES 2017 ; Conference Date: 4 December 2017 Through 5 December 2017; Conference Code:135860
Uncontrolled Keywords:Eigenvalues and eigenfunctions; MATLAB; Ocean currents; Personal computers; Safety engineering; Stochastic models; Stochastic systems; Structural loads; Surface waters; Sustainable development; Time domain analysis; Uncertainty analysis; Wave functions, Jack up; Karhunen Loeve Expansion; Prolate spheroidal wave functions; Return periods; Sea surface elevation; Stochastic response; Time dependent reliability analysis; Wave load, Reliability analysis
Departments / MOR / COE:Research Institutes > Institute for Sustainable Building
ID Code:21619
Deposited By: Ahmad Suhairi
Deposited On:25 Sep 2018 00:44
Last Modified:07 Jan 2019 08:04

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